Finnish Immigration Service published forecasts of future application numbers

The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network issues estimates of migrants and refugees arriving in Finland. The estimates are produced in cooperation with different stakeholders. The Finnish Immigration Service’s operating environment is in a constant flux, making it difficult to anticipate application numbers. This is why the network updates its forecasts three times a year.

The number of work permit applications is expected to drop this year but increase in 2026

The downturn in the Finnish economy reduced the number of applications on the basis of employment last year. The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network estimates that the numbers of first applications for work permits will continue to drop during the current year but start growing again in 2026. 

“We anticipate that next year, the number of employees’ applications will reach roughly the same level as in 2021 if the Finnish economy recovers as has been forecast. According to the latest estimate, employees will submit 11,000 applications this year and 15,000 next year,” says Director of Development Johannes Hirvelä.

The number of applications for studies will remain high

The number of international students is expected to continue its record-breaking growth, with application numbers reaching 15,000 in 2025 and 16,000 in 2026.

“More stringent rules have been imposed on students’ immigration. Finland has nevertheless remained an attractive country for students, as international students have an extensive right to work in Finland, they can also bring their families here, and while the tuition fees have increased, Finnish fees are not exceptionally high by international comparison. Students are currently arriving in Finland from South Asian countries, in particular, where such factors as the relatively high unemployment rate of higher education graduates drives emigration,” says Hirvelä.

Asylum application numbers will remain moderate

Despite conflicts and crises in Europe’s neighbouring regions, the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland is expected to remain moderate this year. It is estimated that 2,000 to 3,000 first asylum applications will be submitted in 2025.

It is also expected that a steady stream of applicants for temporary protection will arrive from Ukraine this year. However, sudden changes in the situation in Ukraine or in the European Union’s neighbouring regions may have a significant impact on the numbers of temporary protection and asylum applications.

The forecasts will next be updated in June 2025.  

Further information

• Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Development, email: firstname.lastname@migri.fi, tel. 0295 434 083
• Website: Forecasts