SKVL's forecast for housing sales in 2025

The forecast is based on a survey conducted at the end of December 2024 and the respondents were real estate professionals from approximately 60% of member companies across the country. Margin of error about 2%.

Forecast for the beginning of the year

The year 2025 will bring a lively housing market. SKVL local experts have estimated that the first quarter of 2025 will see an average increase of about 2–3% in the sales volumes of old apartments. Prices are expected to remain at their current level, except for newer terraced, semi-detached and detached houses, where a slight rise in prices will be seen due to higher demand.

"In the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, a clearly livelier increase in trade is expected already in midwinter. Sales of old apartments in blocks of flats are picking up in Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa, extending also to nearby municipalities close to the Helsinki metropolitan area," says SKVL's Mannerberg. "Towards spring, sales of detached, couple and terraced houses in particular will intensify in accordance with the season," he continues. These building types are expected to grow by up to 15% in sales volumes in and around the Helsinki metropolitan area this year. Newer and well-maintained houses are still most in demand.

Full year forecast

Forecasting the whole year is challenging due to the slow growth of the global economy. Quite positive average figures are forecast for the whole of 2025. On average, the sales volumes of old dwellings in Finland are estimated to grow by about 6–7% and prices to rise by an average of about 1–3%. Local differences can be large, and clearly higher growth rates can be seen for the most demanded housing types. No significant decrease in trade volumes is predicted in any region. More detailed regional forecasts and situation reports can be found in the tables in our press release and in a separate local report.

Situation still stuck in new buildings

No increase in transaction volumes is expected in new apartments in blocks of flats this year either, and the actual transaction prices of completed apartments are forecast to continue to decline somewhat.

"New construction will certainly finally see more starts this year, but those construction decisions are based on expectations of demand generated by the new market situation. Where possible, the size and even the location of apartments are redesigned in many construction projects. The upcoming municipal elections in the spring are important for changing the direction of zoning. Consumers are looking for more affordable solutions that are better suited to living, rather than apartment buildings with only small apartments built according to investors' needs," comments Jussi Mannerberg, CEO of SKVL.

Rental housing and investor movements

Investors accounted for about 7% of housing transactions in late autumn. However, the range is large and, for example, in Espoo, the number of investor buyers is around 3% and in Oulu it is up to 17%.

First-time homebuyers accounted for about 10% of housing sales in late autumn. In some regions, even slightly more than 10%. People move from renting to owner-occupiers as interest rates fall and housing prices become attractive.

The demand for rental housing is also recovering steadily and the abundant supply of smaller apartments is slowly filling up. Investors now also prefer to buy a two-room or three-room apartment rather than a studio apartment. There are even more people willing to buy larger rental apartments everywhere. Now during the winter season, the shortage of rental housing, especially in and around Northern Finland, is already significant. The situation has improved in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, but especially in Eastern Uusimaa and Central Uusimaa, the demand for rental housing has improved.

Brokers concerned about the appreciation of the profession

The work of a real estate agent is one of the most regulated in the world in Finland. The change has been huge in recent years. Brokers have been set up by legislation imposed by the EU directive to supervise the prevention of money laundering, among other things, with very strict measures. In other parts of the world, the legal part of the transaction is carried out by a separate notary or lawyer. In Finland, all this is an important statutory obligation of the intermediary.

Finnish real estate brokers association wants to highlight the fact that today's real estate agents are required to have a very high level of legal expertise and professionalism. Despite this, it is reported from the field that a real estate agent is not valued as a professional compared to many other professional fields. However, more than 90% of the members of the member companies engaged in the organization’s mediation tasks have completed the DHW degree, and most of them undergo annual training to update their knowledge of legislation. Customers are served with the same professionalism that has been used for more than 78 years to ensure that professionalism is the highest possible among its members.